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AFM-26: How Film Financing Really Works Today — Pre-Sales vs. True MG Deals

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Law Offices of Ernest Goodman > Copyright Law  > AFM-26: How Film Financing Really Works Today — Pre-Sales vs. True MG Deals

AFM-26: How Film Financing Really Works Today — Pre-Sales vs. True MG Deals

I attended the American Film Market in 2023, 2025, and 2026, and I decided to update this article following my most recent experience because, despite the passage of time, very little has changed in the fundamental economics of independent film financing and distribution.

At AFM 2023, I rented a booth representing the Law Offices of Ernest Goodman. Although the event provided valuable networking opportunities, the venue was poorly suited for a market of that size. Meetings frequently took place in crowded hotel hallways, and the elevators could not accommodate the volume of attendees. Waiting twenty or thirty minutes just to reach another meeting was not unusual. Despite the business opportunities, the logistical problems made the experience unnecessarily frustrating and inefficient.

By AFM 2025 and 2026, the venues and market environment had changed, but the underlying problems facing independent filmmakers remained remarkably similar. Producers continued searching for financing, sales agents promoted projects with uncertain commercial prospects, and filmmakers struggled to secure meaningful distribution commitments. Many still approached production with the expectation that a completed film would somehow attract buyers.

After attending three American Film Markets, my conclusion remains the same: independent filmmakers need to think about distribution and actual buyers before committing substantial resources to production—not after the film is finished.

The move to Century City completely transformed the atmosphere. The new venue offered wide, open hallways, real meeting spaces, quiet corners where you can sit down and talk with producers or sales agents, and overall a much more professional and polished environment. The change was dramatic. For the first time, AFM felt like a market where deals could actually be made efficiently.

But beyond the better location, something even more important became clear: the business models have shifted. Many companies at AFM-26 presented themselves as distributors or production companies, but when you dig into their actual offer, they were functioning as sales agents, not true distributors. This misunderstanding is the root of enormous confusion among filmmakers, because the way these companies talk about “financing” and “paying upfront money” often makes their deals sound like Minimum Guarantees. In reality, most AFM companies this year were offering pre-sale cashflow financing, not acquisitions.

To explain this difference, I’ll use a real example that several companies discussed with me at the market: a $2.5M romantic comedy with recognizable actors attached.

Pre-Sales: What These AFM Companies Are Actually Offering

At least a dozen companies described the same structure. They said they could help finance the movie through foreign pre-sales. They explained that they pay 10% upfront, another 10% during pre-production, and then additional payments during filming and delivery, eventually reaching about 60% of the total budget. Crucially, they also said that they do not acquire the rights to the movie.

Many filmmakers hear “we pay 10% upfront and continue paying as you produce the film” and think this is a Minimum Guarantee. But it is not. This is the classic foreign pre-sale cashflow model, which has been the backbone of independent film financing for decades.

Under this arrangement, the company does not buy your film. They do not take long-term ownership. They are not the distributor. Instead, they act as a sales agent. Their role is to sell your film into foreign territories—Germany, Japan, France, Italy, the UK, Spain, Australia, Latin America, and many others—based on your cast and genre. The commitments from these foreign distributors are called “pre-sales.” The total value of these commitments determines how much of your budget can be financed in advance.

At AFM-25, foreign buyers were very open to romantic comedies, character-driven dramas, family films, and holiday films. This is a major change from past years, when foreign markets overwhelmingly preferred action, thrillers, and horror. Many buyers said that their audiences want uplifting, optimistic entertainment again. They want stories with heart. They want star-driven romantic comedies and feel-good narratives. Family films remain consistently strong. This shift in genre demand was one of the most important takeaways from the entire market.

Once the sales agent obtains foreign pre-sale commitments, the next step is cashflow. Foreign buyers do not pay until after the movie is completed and delivered, often six to twelve months after production. But producers need the money now. So the sales agent arranges a cashflow loan against the value of those foreign contracts.

This cashflow typically comes from one of four sources. First, there are specialized entertainment lending banks. Institutions like Comerica, East West Bank, JP Morgan’s media division, City National Bank, MUFG, Natixis Coficiné, and Cofiloisirs have been lending against pre-sales for decades. Second, some sales agents have their own internal capital or equity pools, which they use to advance money to productions. Third, many sales agents have relationships with third-party film financiers, mezzanine funds, or private equity-backed lenders who provide loans secured by pre-sales. And finally, a substantial amount of cashflow in today’s market comes from private lending facilities—family offices, high-net-worth investors, and boutique media funds that specialize in financing pre-sold independent films.

This is the origin of the statement you heard at AFM: “We pay 10% upfront, 10% later, and additional installments up to about 60%.” These staged payments reflect the structure of the cashflow loan. A small amount is released at signing to begin pre-production. Another portion is released once production officially begins. More flows during principal photography, and sometimes another tranche upon delivery of a rough or locked cut. The final portion is released near delivery. These payments are connected to the lending facility’s risk management and the sales agent’s own exposure.

In this model, you, the producer, keep ownership of the film. You retain copyright, you retain domestic rights, and you retain long-term control. The sales agent will recoup the cashflow from the foreign buyers’ payments and then take their commission—typically between 15% and 25%—plus any approved marketing expenses. After that, any overages belong to you and your equity investors.

This system can be extremely effective, but it also carries legal complexity. Many pre-sale contracts include pitfalls that must be negotiated carefully. Delivery requirements can be expensive. Sales agents may try to include uncapped marketing expenses that swallow a film’s profits. Reporting obligations may be vague. Some contracts include cross-collateralization, meaning your film’s revenue could be used to cover losses on other films in their catalog. Contract terms can be unreasonably long. Without audit rights, you may never know whether you are owed money. A pre-sale model works only if the legal structure protects the producer’s interests.


The True MG Deal: What Filmmakers Often Think They’re Getting

A true Minimum Guarantee (MG) acquisition is fundamentally different from the pre-sale financing arrangements described above. The essential difference is the underlying legal transaction: in an MG acquisition, the distributor obtains intellectual property rights to exploit the motion picture in exchange for a guaranteed payment. These may be domestic, international, or worldwide distribution rights, granted exclusively for a specified period.

In other words, the distributor is not simply arranging a loan or advancing money against anticipated foreign sales. The distributor is acquiring contractual rights to commercially exploit the film. Those rights are valuable intellectual property interests, and the producer is agreeing to transfer or license them in exchange for the Minimum Guarantee.

This does not necessarily mean transferring ownership of the copyright itself. In many transactions, the producer retains copyright ownership but grants an exclusive distribution license. Nevertheless, the distributor receives enforceable rights that prevent the producer from independently exploiting the same rights during the contractual term.

Now comes the harsh reality that many independent filmmakers do not want to hear. In the lower-budget independent film market, filmmakers may encounter distributors or sales companies offering relatively modest amounts, sometimes $60,000 or less, while presenting those offers as substantial Minimum Guarantees. In some cases, what is being marketed as an MG is actually a collection of territorial pre-sales or anticipated licensing agreements with buyers in different countries. The sales company may be aggregating potential or contracted licensing revenue from several territories rather than committing its own funds to a genuine, independently guaranteed acquisition payment.

And let’s be clear: offering $60,000 for a film with a $1 million production budget is a joke if that amount is presented as a meaningful solution to the filmmaker’s financing problem. That represents just 6% of the production budget. It does not come remotely close to recovering the investment, let alone covering marketing expenses, distribution costs, financing charges, and other obligations. Yet some filmmakers celebrate such offers as major distribution achievements simply because someone attached the impressive-sounding label “Minimum Guarantee” to them. A $60,000 payment may have legitimate commercial value, but it should not be confused with substantial financial validation of a million-dollar production.

A filmmaker might hear that a project has secured a $60,000 MG and assume that a distributor has acquired the film for that amount. But the underlying documents may tell a very different story. The money could depend on separate licensing agreements, delivery requirements, territorial sales, or payments from third-party buyers. If the supposed guarantee is contingent upon securing those transactions, it may not function as a genuine guaranteed payment at all. Calling something a Minimum Guarantee does not make it one.

There is an important legal distinction here. Territorial pre-sales are themselves licensing transactions, and an actual pre-sale agreement can contain an enforceable Minimum Guarantee. Similarly, an MG does not cease to be an MG merely because the distributor expects to recover its investment through territorial sales. The critical question is who has assumed the payment obligation, what rights have been licensed, and whether payment depends on future sales that may never materialize. A genuine MG may still be subject to customary contractual conditions, such as delivery and acceptance of the completed film.

This is where filmmakers need to stop listening to impressive terminology and start reading their contracts. A sales agent’s estimate of what foreign territories might generate is not the same thing as a binding distributor commitment. A collection of conditional offers is not necessarily an acquisition. And a financing proposal supported by prospective territorial licenses should not be confused with an enforceable obligation to pay a specified amount for distribution rights.

That is the distinction filmmakers must understand: receiving money toward a production budget does not automatically mean a distributor has acquired the film. The legal substance of the agreement—not the terminology used during an AFM sales pitch—determines whether the transaction is a financing arrangement, a sales agency relationship, a territorial pre-sale, or a genuine distribution acquisition.

Ultimately, a $60,000 commitment that is genuinely guaranteed may be worth considerably more than a much larger headline figure dependent on speculative territorial sales. But filmmakers must also understand the economics. When you spend $1 million making a movie and your distributor offers $60,000, you have not solved your financial problem. You have merely recovered six cents on every dollar invested, before accounting for other costs.

Independent filmmakers should evaluate who is legally obligated to pay, when payment becomes due, what conditions apply, which distribution rights are being granted, and what remedies exist if payment never arrives.

The contract matters. The economics matter. The sales pitch does not.


Changing Genre Demand: A Turning Point in the Industry

One of the most encouraging aspects of AFM-26 was hearing repeatedly from buyers that genre preferences have shifted. Foreign distributors said they want films that uplift and entertain rather than only relying on darkness or violence. Romantic comedies are attracting renewed interest, especially when recognizable talent is attached. Family films remain strong. Dramas with emotional stakes and festival potential are also attracting attention. Even holiday films are generating renewed interest, particularly among streaming platforms and international broadcasters.

However, dramas and comedies remain considerably more difficult to sell without recognizable actors. Unlike horror, thriller, or action films, which can sometimes generate international sales based primarily on their concepts and genre appeal, dramas and comedies often depend heavily on star power. A well-written screenplay and strong performances by unknown actors may not be sufficient to convince distributors to commit to a minimum guarantee or a pre-sale agreement.

This is particularly important for independent producers working with limited budgets. Buyers are not simply evaluating the artistic quality of a screenplay. They are assessing whether the film has a realistic chance of generating revenue in specific territories and distribution channels. Recognizable actors can substantially influence those calculations, sometimes making the difference between a commercially viable project and one that distributors are unwilling to acquire.

Another increasingly important development is the use of artificial intelligence and predictive analytics in film acquisition and financing decisions. Some sales companies, financiers, and distributors use AI-assisted models to estimate a project’s potential commercial performance. These systems may analyze an actor’s historical box-office results, international recognition, genre performance, production budget, target demographics, comparable films, distribution territories, and expected revenue across theatrical, streaming, and other platforms.

For example, a producer may believe that attaching a recognizable actor will dramatically increase a film’s value. However, predictive models may suggest otherwise if that actor has limited commercial appeal in the territories where the film is expected to sell. Conversely, an actor with a modest profile in the United States may have significant commercial value in particular foreign markets.

These models are not infallible. Their predictions depend on the quality of the underlying data, assumptions about audience behavior, and rapidly changing distribution conditions. AI cannot guarantee that a film will be profitable, nor can it reliably predict every unexpected commercial success. Nevertheless, data-driven financial projections are increasingly part of how film projects are evaluated.

For independent filmmakers, this creates both opportunities and challenges. Genre preferences may be changing, but the fundamental economics of filmmaking remain the same. A compelling story is important, yet it does not automatically translate into a commercially viable film.

AFM-26 reinforced an important lesson: producers must evaluate their films not only as creative works but also as financial products. Before committing substantial resources to production, they should understand their target market, the commercial value of their cast, potential distribution channels, and realistic revenue expectations. The growing use of AI-based financial analysis makes these considerations even more relevant.


The Core Takeaway

The most important lesson from AFM-26 is that filmmakers must understand the legal difference between film financing and the acquisition of distribution rights. Many companies presenting themselves as distributors are actually functioning as sales agents, arranging foreign pre-sales and cashflow financing rather than directly acquiring distribution rights in exchange for a Minimum Guarantee.

Some companies described financing structures involving 10% upfront, another 10% during pre-production, and additional installments covering as much as 60% of a film’s budget. However, these payments should not be confused with a genuine MG acquisition. In such arrangements, the sales agent generally facilitates transactions with foreign distributors and may arrange financing secured by those contracts. The producer typically retains copyright ownership, although specific distribution rights may be licensed to foreign buyers.

By contrast, a true MG acquisition involves a distributor obtaining defined intellectual property rights to commercially exploit the film in exchange for a guaranteed financial commitment. The distributor acquires exclusive distribution rights within specified territories, media, and contractual periods. This is fundamentally a rights transaction, not merely a financing arrangement.

The distinction matters because the legal consequences are different. Producers must understand exactly which rights they are granting, to whom, for how long, and what financial obligations the other party is assuming. The language used in a sales pitch is irrelevant if the actual contract establishes a different legal relationship.

The second major insight is that audience demand has shifted, with renewed interest in romantic comedies, character-driven dramas, family films, and uplifting entertainment. However, dramas and comedies remain difficult to sell internationally without recognizable actors. Buyers increasingly rely on financial projections, historical performance data, and AI-assisted analysis to evaluate the commercial value of attached talent and estimate potential revenues.

The ultimate lesson is simple: before financing or producing a film, understand who your buyers are, what rights they expect to acquire, and whether the proposed transaction is legally a financing arrangement or an actual distribution acquisition.


✍️ Written by Ernest Goodman, Entertainment & IP Lawyer.

⚠️ Disclaimer by Ernest Goodman, Esq.

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Reading or relying on this content does not establish an attorney-client relationship. Because laws differ by jurisdiction and continue to evolve, readers are encouraged to consult a qualified attorney licensed in the relevant jurisdiction for advice tailored to specific circumstances.

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